ELECTION UPDATE – AT 8:47 P.M. ET:  Very little hard news to report tonight.  It's the last weekend of campaigning. 

There are, however, these things:

The Pennsylvania race between Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak, one of the most watched of the Senate races, appears to be tightening again.  Republican Toomey got a big scare about ten days ago, when a good part of his lead seemed to disappear.  Then he rallied.  A new tracker by Morning Call, though, shows him up only two points.  It had been seven a few days ago.  Could be statistical noise, but this is still a cliffhanger.

Democrats are encouraged by late pre-election-day voting in Nevada, where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is trying to fend off a challenge by Republican Sharron Angle.  There was a Democratic voting surge on Friday.  But observers caution that Angle's lead among independents may make the major difference on election day.  Another very close one.

Fox News sums up the overall picture: 

Once the dust settles on Election Day, Republicans could very well be in control of the House if not the Senate as well as most governorships across the country, benefiting from a wave of voter anger over the economy and profound pessimism about the future.

While big-state races in Florida, Ohio, Illinois and California remain intensely competitive into the campaign's final hours, the Democratic effort to retain control of the House is a lost cause, according to political strategists in both parties and public opinion polls.

Republicans must win 40 seats to gain control of the House and 10 to take the Senate. Most political analysts predict Republicans will win more than 50 seats in the House but under 10 in the Senate.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, predicts Republicans will capture the House but fall short in the Senate by two seats.

But he told Fox News that "the big surprise on election night could be a Republican takeover of the Senate because all six times since World War II when the House has split parties one way or the other, the Senate has flipped the very same way even when it could not be seen or predicted in advance."

"I've been through a lot of election nights, I can't remember one when the experts weren't surprised by a dozen or more races," he said.

COMMENT:  Remember that, under the Constitution, all money bills must originate in the House.  So GOP control of that body will probably end Obama's freewheeling spending programs.

And what will Obama do?  Press reports indicate he'll turn to federal regulations to try to get his program through without Congressional action.  It might work, although regulatory decisions are subject to court challenge.

If the GOP has, say, 47 seats in the Senate, up from its current 41, that is enough to filibuster objectionable bills to death, even if three or four defectors vote with the other side.  You need 60 votes to stop a filibuster, and the Dems will have only 53, assuming all their troops stay loyal.

Interesting times coming up.

October 30, 2010